Политичка ревија 1/2024

ИНДО-ПАЦИФИЧКИ РЕГИОН КАО ГЕОПОЛИТИЧКИ „ПИВОТ” НА ПОЧЕТКУ 21. ВЕКА

Аутори
УДКУДК 327(510)’’20’’ Стране125-151 Година2024
Преузми PDF 10.5937/pr79-45860
Преглед истраживања

Сажетак

Проблемски, рад се односи на анализу геостратешког значаја региона Индо-Пацифика и геополитичким кретањима и дешавањима у истом, на почетку 21. века. Успон Кине као политичке, економске и војне силе, представља најважнији догађај у трансформацији глобалног међународног система којим су суверено владале САД. Оваква геополитичка реалност усмерила је светску пажњу са евроатлантског на индо-пацифички регион. Поред тога, економски раст региона, у нераздвојној синергији са политичким и војним стратешким интересима, представља велики изазов дугогодишњој доминацији САД у Индо-пацифичкој регији. Трансформација Кине у регионалну силу са глобалним аспирацијама, променила је структуру регионалних односа нарушивши донедавно неупитну америчку хегемонију у овом делу света. Предмет рада односи се на испитивање геополитичких кретања у региону Индо-Пацифика, са гледиштем да је већ присутан геополитички „пивот” на почетку 21. века. Регион Индо-Пацифика обухвата велико водено, али и копнено пространство, међутим његова специфичност огледа се у чињеници да је најзначајнија „геополитичка игра” данашњице везана за дешавања у водама Јужног кинеског мора. Источна Европа јесте била геополитички центар гравитације последњих стотину година, али успон Кине као политичке, економске и војне силе и дешавања у Јужном кинеском мору указују да би исто могло бити „поморски осовински регион” у 21. веку.

Извори и литература

Референце

  1. Зарић, Иван М. 2018. „Таласократска димензија савремене кинеске геополитикe.” Докторска дисертација. Универзитет у Београду: Факултет политичких наука.
  2. Павковић, Олга. 2018. „Безбедносни аспекти Иницијативе Појас и Пут.” Политика националне безбедности 15 (5): 121–138. DOI: 10.22182/pnb.1522018.7.
  3. Стојановић, Станислав, и Јованка Шарановић. 2021 „Азијски пацифик и Америчко Кинеско надметање.” Српска политичка мисао 71 (1): 111–143. DOI: 10.22182/spm.7112021.6.
  4. Траиловић, Драган. 2011. „Централна Азија и нова Велика игра – главни геополитички актери.” Национални интерес 7 (10): 363–386. DOI: 10.22182/ni.1012011.16
  5. Auslin, Michael. 2011. “The struggle for power in the Indo-Pacific.” Turkish Policy Quarterly 10 (3): 146–151.
  6. Baker, Rodger. 2014. “China’s Moves in the South China Sea: Implications and Opportunities.” Stratfor. November 10, 2014. https://fdocuments.in/document/chinas-moves-in-the-south-china-sea-implications-and-opportunities.html.
  7. Berkofsky, Axel. 2019. “Japan and the Indo-Pacific: Alive and Kicking.” In Geopolitics by Other Means. The Indo-Pacific Reality, eds. Axel Berkofsky and Sergio Miracola, 97–114. Milano: ISPI.
  8. Bhatt, Pooja. 2018. “Evolving Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific: Deliberating India’s Position.” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs 1 (1): 53–78.
  9. Blasko, Dennis. 2015. “The 2015 Chinese Defense White Paper on Strategy in Perspective: Maritime Missions Require a Change in the PLA Mindset.” China Brief 15 (12): 1–21.
  10. Bouchard, Christian, and William Crumplin. 2010. “Neglected no longer: the Indian Ocean at the forefront of world geopolitics and global geostrategy.” Journal of the Indian Ocean Region 6 (1) 26–51. DOI: 10.1080/19480881.2010.489668.
  11. China Power. n.d. “How Is China’s Energy Footprint Changing?” China Power. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://chinapower.csis.org/energyfootprint/#:~:text=According%20to%20China%20National%20Petroleum,will%20be%20sourced%20from%20elsewhere.
  12. Claxton, Karl. 2014. “China’s sea lines of communications – implications for the South Pacific?” The Strategists. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-sea-lines-of-communication-implications-for-the-south-pacific/.
  13. Clinton, Hillary. 2010. “America’s Engagement in the Asia-Pacific.” US Department of State. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/10/150141.htm.
  14. Clinton, Hillary. 2011. “America’s Pacific Century.” Foreign Policy. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/.
  15. Dan, McDaniel. 2012. “India, China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region: coalition, co-existence or clash.” Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies at the Australian Defence College. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://defence.gov.au/ADC/Publications/documents/Commanders/2012/McDaniel-2012.pdf.
  16. Demir, Emre. 2018. “Fragmented or Integrated Asia: Competing Regional Visions of the US and China.” Rising Powers Quarterly 3 (2): 45–65.
  17. Dian, Matteo. 2013. “Japan and the US Pivot to the Asia Pacific.” The London School of Economics and political science. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/updates/LSE-IDEAS-Japan-US-Pivot.pdf
  18. Dolven, Ben, and Bruce Vaughn. 2020. “Indo-Pacific Strategies of U.S. Allies and Partners: Issues for Congress.” Congressional Research Service. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20200130_R46217_770a61c4856a9a5aed99d6699f3423b6240ff1c3.pdf.
  19. Fravel, Taylor. 2012. “Maritime Security in the South China Sea and the Competition over Maritime Rights.” Cooperation from Strenght. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023.http://taylorfravel.com/documents/research/fravel.2012.CNAS.maritime.security.SCS.pdf
  20. Fulton, Jonathan. 2018. “The Gulf between the Indo-Pacific and the Belt and Road Initiative.” Rising Powers Quarterly 3 (2): 175–193.
  21. Harper, Tom. 2019. “China’s Eurasia: the Belt and Road Initiative and the Creation of a New Eurasian Power.” The Chinese Journal of Global Governance 5 (2): 99–121. DOI: 10.1163/23525207-12340039.
  22. Hayton, Bill. 2014. The South China Sea – The Struggle For Power In Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press.
  23. Heiduk, Felix, and Gudrun Wacker. 2020. “From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific – Significance, Implementation and Challenges.” German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2020RP09_IndoPacific.pdf.
  24. Kaplan, Robert D. 2014. Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the end of a Stable Pacific. New York: Random House.
  25. Kazianis, Harry. 2014. “Air-Sea Battle Concept: An Attempt to Weaken China’s A2/AD Strategy.” ASPI. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/NMS.png
  26. Khurana, Gurpreet. 2019. “What is the Indo-Pacific? The New Geopolitics of the Asia-Centred Rim Land.” In Geopolitics by Other Means. The Indo-Pacific Reality, eds. Axel Berkofsky and Sergio Miracola, 13–32. Milano: ISPI.
  27. Khurana, Gurpreet S. 2018. The Indo-Pacific Region, The Emerging Geopolitical and Security Environment. Dictus Publishing.
  28. Logan, Justin. 2013. “China, America, and the Pivot to Asia.” CATO Institute. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa717.pdf
  29. Malik, Mohan. 2018. “China and India: Maritime Maneuvers and Geopolitical Shifts in the Indo-Pacific.” Rising Powers Quarterly 3 (2): 67–81.
  30. Mearsheimer, John. 2014. “Can China Rise Peacefully?” The National Interest. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204.
  31. Medcalf, Rory. 2013. “The Indo-Pacific: What’s in a Name?” The American Interest. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. http://www.the-american-interest.com/2013/10/10/the-indo-pacific-whats-in-a-name/.
  32. Miracola, Sergio. 2019. “The Indo-Pacific As a New Infrastructural and Economic-Trade Area: A Real Competitor to BRI?” In Geopolitics by Other Means. The Indo-Pacific Reality, eds. Axel Berkofsky and Sergio Miracola, 33–54. Milano: ISPI.
  33. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. 2007. “Confluence of the Two Seas”. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. August 2007. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/pmv0708/speech-2.html.
  34. Mohan, Raja. 2012. “The New Triangular Diplomacy: India, China and America at Sea.” The Diplomat. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2012/11/the-new-triangular-diplomacy-india-china-and-america-on-the-high-seas/?all=true.
  35. National Archives and Records Administration. 2017. “National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” National Archives and Records Administration. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/.
  36. Panda, Jagannath P. 2018. “India’s Call on China in the Quad: A Strategic Arch between Liberal and Alternative Structures.” Rising Powers Quarterly 3 (2): 83–111.
  37. Panda, Jagannath P. 2019. “India and Pacific Ocean: the „Act East” Between Trade, Infrastructure and Security.” In Geopolitics by Other Means. The Indo-Pacific Reality, eds. Axel Berkofsky and Sergio Miracola, 71–95. Milano: ISPI.
  38. Prasad, Nidhi. 2018. “India’s Foray into the Indo-Pacific: Embracing Ambiguity through Strategic Autonomy.” Semantic Scholar. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/68e8/1880c35a23226ab8767b2b26defb753e6e58.pdf?_ga=2.52086241.918393891.1607749734-2038838477.1605797505.
  39. Rehman, Iskander. 2010. “China’s String of Pearls and India’s Enduring Tactical Advantage.” Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. http://idsa.in/idsacomments/ChinasStringofPearlsandIndiasEnduringTacticalAdvantage_irehman_080610#footnote2_gmkic32.
  40. Rogers, James. 2014. Interwiev with Iskander Rehman. European Geostrategy. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://csbaonline.org/about/news/indo-pacific-geopolitics
  41. Rossiter, Ash. 2018. “The ”Free and Open Indo-Pacific” Strategy and Japan’s Emerging Security Posture An Amorphous Concept.” Rising Powers Quarterly 3 (2):113–131.
  42. Stekić, Nenad. 2021. „Arktik kao severna maritimna komponenta kineske inicijative ‘Pojas i put’.” U Regionalna bezbednost: pristupi, elementi, dinamika, ur. Nevena Šekarić i Vladimir Trapara, str. 259–281. Beograd: Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu.
  43. Scott, David. 2008. “The Great Power ‘Great Game’ between India and China: ‘The Logic of Geography’.” Geopolitics 13 (1): 1–26. DOI: 10.1080/14650040701783243.
  44. Scott, David. 2009. “India’s ‘Extended Neighbourhood’ Concept: Power Projection for a Rising Power.” India Review 8 (2): 107–143. DOI: 10.1080/14736480902901038.
  45. Scott, David. 2012. “US Strategy in the Pacific – Geopolitical Positioning for the Twenty-First.” Geopolitics 17 (3): 1–22. DOI: 10.1080/14650045.2011.631200.
  46. Scott, David. 2018. “The Indo-Pacific in US Strategy: Responding to Power Shifts.” Rising Powers Quarterly 3 (2): 19–43.
  47. Sempa, Francis. 2019. “Tha Case for Containing China.” The Diplomat. June 2019. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/the-case-for-containing-china/.
  48. Singh, Prashant. 2016. Changing contexts of Chinese military strategy and doctrine. New Delhi: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
  49. Spykman, Nicholas. 2007. America’s Strategy in World politics. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company.
  50. Thayer, Carlyle. 2011. “Maritime Security and the Role of Naval Diplomacy in the South China Sea.” Maritime Security Asia. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://journals.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/jsaa/article/download/446/446-471-1-PB.pdf
  51. The US Department of Defense. 2019. “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report. Preparedness, Partnership, and Promoting a Network Region.” The US Department of Defense. Poslednji pristup: 05. decembar 2023. https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-INDO-PACIFIC-STRATEGY-REPORT-2019.PDF.
  52. Yoshihara, Toshi. 2013. “The US Navy’s Indo-Pacific challenge.” Journal of the Indian Ocean Region 9 (1): 90–103. DOI: 10.1080/19480881.2013.793914
Из истог броја

Повезане публикације